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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iran leadership change by November 30? | No | 999.99 | $0.880 | $914.99 | +$35 |
 Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?Yes | buy | 17 | $0.480 | $8.16 | 2d ago |
|
| Yes |
| 1.7K |
| $0.474 |
| $854.33 |
| +$47.95 |
 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 522.53 | $0.698 | $376.22 | +$11.57 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 360.06 | $0.880 | $336.66 | +$19.8 |
 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1.63K | $0.171 | $306.45 | +$26.77 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 400 | $0.640 | $266 | +$10 |
 Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 254.6 | $0.813 | $238.05 | +$31.1 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1.6K | $0.180 | $231.19 | -$57.31 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1.4K | $0.235 | $226.13 | -$103.57 |
 Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 230 | $0.920 | $211.6 | +$0 |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | No | 200 | $0.860 | $198.7 | +$26.7 |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? | No | 201 | $0.920 | $189.95 | +$5.03 |
| Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 199.99 | $0.910 | $186.99 | +$5 |
 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 200 | $0.591 | $175 | +$56.71 |
 Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 200 | $0.820 | $173 | +$9 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | Yes | 399.97 | $0.640 | $171.99 | -$83.99 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 200 | $0.820 | $171 | +$7 |
 Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? | Yes | 200 | $0.540 | $165 | +$57 |
 Will the next elected US president be a woman? | No | 201 | $0.500 | $143.72 | +$43.22 |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 189.99 | $0.720 | $143.44 | +$6.65 |
 Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 702.03 | $0.296 | $141.46 | -$66.47 |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 163 | $0.809 | $123.88 | -$8.02 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 201 | $0.700 | $116.18 | -$24.51 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 200.01 | $0.537 | $107 | -$0.5 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | No | 116.01 | $0.730 | $99.18 | +$14.5 |
| sell |
| 683.2 |
| $0.630 |
| $430.42 |
| 2d ago |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026?No | buy | 7 | $0.640 | $4.48 | 5d ago |
 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 81.33 | $0.201 | $16.35 | 19d ago |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes | buy | 30.12 | $0.270 | $8.13 | 22d ago |
| Iran leadership change by October 31?No | buy | 201 | $0.920 | $184.92 | 22d ago |
| Iran leadership change by November 30?No | buy | 126.34 | $0.880 | $111.18 | 24d ago |
 Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.094 | $9.4 | 27d ago |
 Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.4–0.6%?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.730 | $14.6 | 28d ago |
| Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.2–0.4%?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.130 | $13 | 28d ago |
| Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 0.2%?No | buy | 381 | $0.950 | $361.95 | 28d ago |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No | buy | 25 | $0.820 | $20.5 | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.151 | $151 | Aug 8, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 360.06 | $0.880 | $316.85 | Aug 8, 2026 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 588 | $0.432 | $254.02 | Aug 7, 2026 |
 Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No | buy | 38 | $0.860 | $32.68 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 443.73 | $0.040 | $17.75 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?No | buy | 45 | $0.880 | $39.6 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?No | buy | 56.79 | $0.920 | $52.25 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?No | buy | 21 | $0.910 | $19.11 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?No | buy | 150 | $0.810 | $121.5 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?No | buy | 13 | $0.800 | $10.4 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?No | buy | 189.99 | $0.720 | $136.79 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes | sell | 271 | $0.283 | $76.68 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes | sell | 400.21 | $0.219 | $87.78 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.203 | $20.26 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?No | buy | 200 | $0.820 | $164 | Jul 5, 2026 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?No | buy | 400 | $0.890 | $356 | Jun 28, 2026 |
 Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Yes | sell | 151.52 | $0.005 | $0.7 | Jun 21, 2026 |
 Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?Yes | sell | 328.97 | $0.002 | $0.66 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?Yes | sell | 155.05 | $0.006 | $0.93 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?Yes | sell | 400 | $0.003 | $1.2 | Jun 21, 2026 |
 Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Yes | sell | 162.56 | $0.117 | $19.02 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Yes | sell | 37.44 | $0.121 | $4.53 | Apr 9, 2026 |
 JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No | sell | 114.97 | $0.151 | $17.4 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.340 | $1.7 | Apr 7, 2026 |
 S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 7?Up | sell | 100 | $0.460 | $46 | Apr 6, 2026 |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?No | buy | 200 | $0.940 | $188 | Apr 6, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?No | sell | 144.76 | $0.290 | $41.98 | Apr 5, 2026 |
 US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?No | buy | 200 | $0.930 | $186 | Apr 5, 2026 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 37 | $0.080 | $2.96 | Apr 5, 2026 |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30?No | sell | 201 | $0.170 | $34.17 | Apr 3, 2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Yes | sell | 97.68 | $0.140 | $13.68 | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?No | sell | 6.44 | $0.290 | $1.87 | Apr 2, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Yes | sell | 199.98 | $0.520 | $103.99 | Apr 2, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?No | buy | 200 | $0.930 | $186 | Apr 1, 2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31?No | sell | 200 | $0.995 | $199 | Apr 1, 2026 |
 Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.920 | $92 | Mar 30, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?No | buy | 200 | $0.930 | $186 | Mar 29, 2026 |
| Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Yes | buy | 4.32 | $0.880 | $3.8 | Mar 29, 2026 |