Analytics
Yes is at 25%, down 16 points from 40.5% when the market opened on 7 Jul 2026.
Across the 112 daily closes on record from 7 Jul 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 55% on 5 Aug 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 8 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 14.5%; a month before, 16.5%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points up, to 55% on 5 Aug 2026.
$13.27K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $114.31, with a 30.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 118 trades, $85.74 bought Yes and $9.05K bought No.
The largest Yes position is LornaPredicts with 100 shares; the largest No position is nonkenny90 with 286.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 112 points, 7 Jul 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2026 | 40.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 25.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| nonkenny90 | No | 285.52 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 100.1 |
| dropmeplease | Yes | 81.7 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date. If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-rebels-capture-gao-by-december-31-20260706144440995
| Dr.PNL |
| Yes |
| 26.1 |
| winexecutescale | Yes | 24 |
| silverstud | Yes | 20 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 17.56 |
| jdkfbsbdskjbfjksq | Yes | 10.16 |
| mandraca | Yes | 8.77 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | No | 3.77 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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