Analytics
Trading ended on 28 Oct 2026 with Yes at 95.8%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 8 daily closes on record from 20 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 98% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 30% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 32%. Its largest one-day move was 6 points up, to 42.5% on 28 Oct 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “Israeli Legislative Election: % of Vote Below Threshold”.
$2.22K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is bacs2000 with 213 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 318. Ten wallets hold 82.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 30, 4:57 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 20 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | 30.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 95.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 318.47 |
| bacs2000 | Yes | 212.77 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 211.16 |
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the combined share of the vote received by lists that do not pass the electoral threshold in the 2026 Israeli legislative election to the Knesset, defined as the total number of valid votes cast for lists that are not allocated any seats due to falling below the electoral threshold divided by the total number of valid votes cast. (see 2022 example: https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/) If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israeli-legislative-election-vote-below-threshold-20261019152743816
| lissartter | No | 180 |
| vinii | Yes | 136.2 |
| MSFTQQQ | Yes | 128.65 |
| HolyMoses7VerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 59.6 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 45.15 |
| Solar Quasar 31A6 | Yes | 43.13 |
| deepervalue | Yes | 43 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
