Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

politicsResolved

Yes, settled Aug 14, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$593.0K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Aug 14, 2026 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 14 Aug 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 20%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 9 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 9 Jul 2026 to 14 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 47.5% on 23 Jul 2026 and the lowest 20% on 14 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 47.5% on 23 Jul 2026. $593.05K traded over the market's life.

49 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 9 Jul 2026 – 14 Aug 2026, chart shows 10%–60%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
9 Jul 2026	27.5%
14 Aug 2026	20.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
whydoineedtodothis	No	350.59K
Indigo Signal 2966	No	46.1K
norealtime	No	1K

10 of 49 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).