Analytics
Yes is at 67%, up 19 points from 48.5% when the market opened on 12 Jul 2026.
Across the 104 daily closes on record from 12 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 69.5% on 19 Oct 2026 and the lowest 39.5% on 26 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 67.5%; a month before, 56.5%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 58% on 12 Sep 2026.
$50 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $878.74 since listing. The order book holds $342.14, with a 28.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 32 trades, $225.73 bought Yes and $88.49 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 216 shares; the largest No position is UpTheStairs with 68.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 104 points, 12 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 30%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2026 | 48.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 67.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 215.72 |
| UpTheStairs | No | 67.55 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 40 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1. Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1. Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/new-mai-thinking-model-released-byptptpt-20260710200926146
| jhuus |
| No |
| 22 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 20.9 |
| Tallguy2527 | No | 20 |
| Golden Orbit 4F35 | No | 20 |
| cloverpmq2 | No | 20 |
| smarterstrat | No | 20 |
| silverstud | No | 15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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