Analytics
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
economyActive
Closes Jan 1, 2027 UTC
Yes
0.6%
No
99.4%
Yes costs 0.6¢No costs 99.4¢
24h Volume
$2.2K
Total volume
$1.3M
Liquidity
$126.6K
Closes
Jan 1, 2027 UTC
Topic roomLargest Company
Where it stands
Yes is at 0.6%, down 6.9 points from 7.5% when the market opened on 13 Nov 2025.
Across the 336 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 14 Nov 2026 (31 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 16% on 14 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 23 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.3%; a month before, 0.4%. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points up, to 16% on 14 Nov 2025.
Microsoft ranks fourth of the 8 outcomes in “Largest Company end of December 2026?”. Apple leads at 90.6%; NVIDIA is at 7.5%.
Across the latest 500 trades, $420.92 bought Yes and $37.32K bought No; the largest was a $1.88K buy of No at 99.3¢.
Ten wallets hold 83.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 48 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:25 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 336 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 14 Nov 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 7.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 0.7% |
All outcomes
Largest Company end of December 2026?
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 489.1K |
| Hauchn | Yes | 73.28K |
| SteveTheFish | Yes | 70.94K |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on a consensus of credible reporting. Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/largest-company-end-of-december-2026
Dates
- Event startsNov 12, 2025 UTC
- NowLatest price
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in Largest Company
- Quarterly earnings, above all the chipmakers' guidance on data-centre demand
- Index flows and rebalancing on the last trading days of a month or quarter
- Rate expectations, which move long-duration technology stocks more than the market