Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 55% on 18 Feb 2026. Before it settled, the high was 84.5% on 15 Mar 2026 and the low 0.1% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 47 points down, to 32.5% on 17 Mar 2026. $50.38K traded over the market's life.
40 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 10:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 50 points, 18 Feb 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Feb 2026 | 55.0% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bsau4 | Yes | 306.83 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 300 |
| 5atka | Yes | 200 |
| N19pm | Yes | 200 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
If Marco Rubio visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Rubio physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Rubio enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Marco Rubio, the US Federal Government, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/marco-rubio-visits-china-by
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