Analytics
Yes is at 53.5%, up 19 points from 34.5% when the market opened on 6 Aug 2026.
Across the 82 daily closes on record from 6 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 59.5% on 5 Sep 2026 and the lowest 11% on 11 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 32.5%; a month before, 33.5%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 11% on 11 Aug 2026.
Marco Bonilla Mendoza is the favourite of the 16 outcomes in “Chihuahua Governor Election Winner”, ahead of Cruz Pérez Cuéllar at 39%.
$40 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $6.93K since listing. The order book holds $736.23, with a 17.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 153 trades, $1.2K bought Yes and $552.85 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Jade Tide 4719 with 803 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 603. Ten wallets hold 94.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 7 Jun 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 82 points, 6 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | 34.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 53.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Jade Tide 4719 | Yes | 803.02 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 603.15 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 384.41 |
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Chihuahua on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Chihuahua gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Chihuahua and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Chihuahua and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chihuahua-governor-election-winner-20260803170329
4 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| Crimson Scout DF5C | Yes | 363 |
| Haradwaith | No | 278.41 |
| FrozenParasite | Yes | 237.01 |
| Dapsy | No | 150 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 60 |
| vgarridof | Yes | 27.2 |
| lissartter | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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