Analytics
Yes is at 26.4%, down 8.6 points from 35% when the market opened on 6 Aug 2026.
Across the 78 daily closes on record from 6 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 45.3% on 11 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 27 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 18.2%; a month before, 13.7%. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 10.3% on 12 Sep 2026.
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas ranks second of the 19 outcomes in “Sonora Governor Election Winner”. Lorenia Valles Sampedro leads at 56%; Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez is at 12.3%.
$193.54 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.46K since listing. The order book holds $1.29K, with a 13.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 85 trades, $184.48 bought Yes and $262.47 bought No.
The largest Yes position is SnapElectionAvoider with 877 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.7K. Ten wallets hold 95.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 7 Jun 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:53 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 78 points, 6 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | 35.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 26.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.65K |
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 877.27 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 443.01 |
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sonora-governor-election-winner-20260803170329
7 more outcomes, none above 0.2%.
| FrozenParasite | Yes | 188.35 |
| Lunar Pulse E799 | Yes | 71.36 |
| 141849 | No | 48 |
| Silver Maven 0AF9 | Yes | 46.89 |
| Poor-Update-Opera | No | 32.12 |
| metifenildato | Yes | 29.7 |
| PPMT | No | 29.7 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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