Analytics
Yes is at 57%, up 24 points from 33% when the market opened on 6 Aug 2026.
Across the 83 daily closes on record from 6 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 78% on 14 Aug 2026 and the lowest 22% on 11 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 67.5%; a month before, 68%. Its largest one-day move was 35 points up, to 56.5% on 13 Aug 2026.
Lorenia Valles Sampedro is the favourite of the 19 outcomes in “Sonora Governor Election Winner”, ahead of Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas at 25.6%.
$88.8 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $28.71K since listing. The order book holds $1.06K, with a 14.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 369 trades, $3.74K bought Yes and $3.43K bought No; the largest was a $1.18K sell of No at 57.9¢.
The largest Yes position is FrozenParasite with 3.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.7K. Ten wallets hold 89.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 7 Jun 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 83 points, 6 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | 33.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 57.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| FrozenParasite | Yes | 3.11K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.65K |
| 74-75 | No | 1.2K |
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sonora-governor-election-winner-20260803170329
7 more outcomes, none above 0.2%.
| Blue-Horseshoe |
| Yes |
| 549.62 |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | No | 478.55 |
| balabalababalabala | Yes | 470.86 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | No | 322.73 |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | No | 300 |
| BASSATS01 | No | 198.45 |
| 101456 | No | 184.49 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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