Analytics
Resolved Yes on 13 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 89%. Yes opened at 86.5% on 31 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2025 to 13 Jan 2026, the highest close was 92% on 1 Jan 2026 and the lowest 75% on 6 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 75% on 6 Jan 2026. $128.23K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 25, 4:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 31 Dec 2025 – 13 Jan 2026, chart shows 70%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2025 | 86.5% |
| 13 Jan 2026 | 89.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term-Dough | No | 23.95K |
| liquni | No | 8.3K |
| Merksant | No | 4.95K |
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Lighter 1-minute candle for Lighter (LIT/USDC) between December 30, 2025, 14:25 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Lighter, specifically the LIT/USDC “Low” prices available at: https://app.lighter.xyz/trade/LIT_USDC with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Only the Lighter LIT/USDC price feed will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-lighter-hit-before-2027
| Varapcfi | No | 4.51K |
| softik | No | 4.5K |
| bestol0ch | No | 3.34K |
| augustOK | No | 2K |
| MMstrategy | No | 400 |
| william1102 | No | 333 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 217 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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