Analytics
Yes is at 15.3%, down 35 points from 50% when the market opened on 18 Aug 2026.
The high was 50% on 18 Aug 2026 and the low 4.7% on 30 Aug 2026. A week ago Yes was at 7%; a month ago, 10.3%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 11.4% on 23 Aug 2026.
1,033–1,038 ft ranks third of the 4 outcomes in “How low will Lake Mead drop?”. 1,028–1,033 ft leads at 49.5%; Below 1,028 ft is at 31%.
$2.24K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $412.67, with a 29.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 75 trades, $122.05 bought Yes and $827.06 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Hugin-og-Munin with 360 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 993. Ten wallets hold 97.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 15 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 20, 10:44 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 65 points, 18 Aug 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 15.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 992.83 |
| Hugin-og-Munin | Yes | 360 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 353.94 |
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,038.00 feet but does not fall below 1,033.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-mead-drop-1786981653904
| youtube-trader |
| Yes |
| 86.22 |
| Started-with-20-USD | Yes | 54.17 |
| Bright Summit 8EFD | Yes | 50.85 |
| liq2 | Yes | 50 |
| Neon Atlas F332 | Yes | 25 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 24 |
| Specialist200303 | Yes | 22 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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