Analytics
Yes is at 50%, about where the market opened on 18 Aug 2026.
Across the 65 daily closes on record from 18 Aug 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 60% on 2 Sep 2026 and the lowest 20.5% on 27 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 30%; a month before, 44.5%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 51% on 28 Aug 2026.
Below 1,028 ft is the favourite of the 4 outcomes in “How low will Lake Mead drop?”, ahead of 1,028–1,033 ft at 43.1%.
$10.52K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $129.48, with a 42.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 153 trades, $1.42K bought Yes and $1.12K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Hot-SkullHomelessBegger with 810 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 993. Ten wallets hold 97.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 15 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 65 points, 18 Aug 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 992.83 |
| Hot-SkullHomelessBegger | Yes | 810.48 |
| Started-with-20-USD | No | 562.98 |
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." For reference, 1,025 feet is the threshold below which the Lower Colorado River Basin enters its most severe declared shortage tier (Tier 3). Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Official listing:
| Hugin-og-Munin | Yes | 360 |
| Swift Summit CA1B | Yes | 325.55 |
| donthackme | No | 235 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 81.67 |
| Bright Summit 8EFD | Yes | 50.89 |
| liq2 | Yes | 50 |
| gonnakilmyslf | Yes | 28 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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