Analytics
Yes is at 5.1%, down 45 points from 50% when the market opened on 29 Jun 2026.
Across the 116 daily closes on record from 29 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 29 Jun 2026 and the lowest 3.3% on 19 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.4%; a month before, 7%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 14.5% on 30 Jun 2026.
$7.17K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $11.16K, with a 3.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 162 trades, $333.54 bought Yes and $2.01K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 273 shares; the largest No position is Prize-Jar with 464. Ten wallets hold 69.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 116 points, 29 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jun 2026 | 50.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 5.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Prize-Jar | No | 463.59 |
| Milin-dc | No | 350 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 272.74 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-jos-luis-rodrguez-zapatero-be-arrested-by-june-30
| eratoxtenex |
| Yes |
| 200 |
| enaich | No | 154.26 |
| Marbeca | Yes | 136.88 |
| GenaTheBondKilIer | No | 130.01 |
| apostator | Yes | 111.27 |
| ljkilian | No | 95.3 |
| Pertinent-Tablecloth | Yes | 82.81 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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