Analytics
Yes is at 55%, up 5.5 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 24 Sep 2026.
Across the 30 daily closes on record from 24 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 53% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 32% on 25 Sep 2026. The current quote, 55%, is above every close in that window; the latest close was 49.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 45.5%; a month before, 38%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 32% on 25 Sep 2026.
John Thune is the favourite of the 9 outcomes in “Next US Senate Minority Leader?”, ahead of Chuck Schumer at 34%.
$160.5 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.84K since listing. The order book holds $29.95K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 121 trades, $895.63 bought Yes and $386.17 bought No.
The largest Yes position is bonalddrunk with 860 shares; the largest No position is James-Talarico with 532. Ten wallets hold 94.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 3 Jan 2027, 67 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 24 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | 49.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 49.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bonalddrunk | Yes | 860.01 |
| James-Talarico | No | 532.23 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 367.06 |
This market will resolve according to the individual who is chosen to be the first Senate Minority Leader in the Congress that convenes after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. If no Senate Minority Leader is chosen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be official information from the United States Senate or official announcements from the caucus organization of the relevant party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-us-senate-minority-leader
| ChiangWan-an | No | 310.33 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 225.42 |
| Antony82 | Yes | 200.76 |
| awei02 | No | 92.59 |
| predictdogepepewif | No | 40 |
| Flobodan | No | 40 |
| macrosteaks | Yes | 38 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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