Analytics
Yes is at 89%, up 26 points from 63.5% when the market opened on 28 Aug 2026.
Across the 57 daily closes on record from 28 Aug 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 89% on 29 Oct 2026 and the lowest 54.5% on 2 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 75%; a month before, 75%. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 67.5% on 7 Oct 2026.
Jess Wilson is the favourite of the 15 outcomes in “Next Premier of Victoria”, ahead of Ben Carroll at 8.8%.
$23.86 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $9.37K since listing. The order book holds $25.93K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 163 trades, $3.37K bought Yes and $525.89 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Uncomfortable-Grasshopper with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.6K. Ten wallets hold 89.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Nov 2026, 32 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 57 points, 28 Aug 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2026 | 63.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 89.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.62K |
| Uncomfortable-Grasshopper | Yes | 1.1K |
| Astera | Yes | 944.76 |
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-premier-of-victoria
3 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| probability | Yes | 928 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 451.84 |
| takeabreath | No | 412.18 |
| LordAlbert | Yes | 271.62 |
| Perypery | No | 245.35 |
| asdasdasdasdasdasdasd | No | 199.15 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 105.69 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
