Analytics
Yes is at 8.8%, down 11 points from 19.5% when the market opened on 28 Aug 2026.
Across the 60 daily closes on record from 28 Aug 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 45.3% on 25 Sep 2026 and the lowest 6.7% on 27 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 20.1%; a month before, 14.2%. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 12.8% on 26 Sep 2026.
Ben Carroll ranks second of the 15 outcomes in “Next Premier of Victoria”. Jess Wilson leads at 89%; Warren Pickering is at 1.9%.
$522.1 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $8.14K since listing. The order book holds $31.85K, with a 1.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 151 trades, $496.73 bought Yes and $1.95K bought No.
The largest Yes position is probability with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.6K. Ten wallets hold 95.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Nov 2026, 32 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 60 points, 28 Aug 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2026 | 19.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 8.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.62K |
| probability | Yes | 1.08K |
| Uncomfortable-Grasshopper | No | 1.05K |
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-premier-of-victoria
3 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| 2B9S | Yes | 729.04 |
| Worthy-Lament | Yes | 500.44 |
| Astera | No | 358.24 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 177.62 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 160 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 103.7 |
| chessplayer | Yes | 84.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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