Analytics
Yes is at 2.1%, down 16 points from 18.5% when the market opened on 23 Oct 2026.
Across the 5 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 18.5% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 2.1% on 27 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 7% on 24 Oct 2026.
$4.01 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.42K since listing. The order book holds $164.92, with a 3.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 73 trades, $164.66 bought Yes and $1.14K bought No.
The largest Yes position is lissartter with 280 shares; the largest No position is PollyEmperor with 487. Ten wallets hold 86.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Nov 2026, 6 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 23 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 18.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 2.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PollyEmperor | No | 487.4 |
| lissartter | Yes | 280 |
| spxtest | No | 132.02 |
This market resolves "Yes" if the RAINFALL trace on the FIA Race Weather Report for the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix registers 'Wet' at any point during the Race session for the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix taking place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve "No" if the RAINFALL trace on the FIA Race Weather Report for the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix does not register 'Wet' at any point. This market covers the Race session only. Rain during Free Practice, Qualifying, Sprint or any other session does not affect this market's resolution. If the Race is suspended or restarted, the FIA Race Weather Report covering the complete, final classified running of the Race is the resolution source. If the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix is canceled or postponed to a date after November 2, 2026, this market resolves "No". Declarations by Race Control that "the track is wet", broadcast commentary, news reporting, or any other secondary sources do not qualify for resolution, only the FIA's official Race Weather Report for the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix will qualify. If the FIA Race Weather Report has not been published by November 2, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve off the FIA Weather Report which will be available on the Event&Timing Information page: https://www.fia.com/events/fia-formula-one-world-championship/season-2026/formula-one. If this link is unavailable, the report will be located via FIA's official F1 season hub at fia.com.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-it-rain-during-the-united-states-grand-prix
| 0xmambagg |
| Yes |
| 97.98 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 90.59 |
| tradeo39 | Yes | 60 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 57.4 |
| Weird-Holder | No | 51.37 |
| robert-mukhametov | No | 51.02 |
| Azure Sphinx C15F | Yes | 46.23 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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