Analytics
Resolved Yes on 6 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.3%. Yes opened at 47% on 3 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 3 Oct 2026 to 6 Oct 2026, the highest close was 99.3% on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest 47% on 3 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 41 points up, to 88% on 4 Oct 2026. $4.98K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 9:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 3 Oct 2026 – 6 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2026 | 47.0% |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 99.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Cobalt Ledger A3F5 | No | 184.84 |
| radeksaturka | No | 80 |
| chessplayer | No | 30.3 |
| lissartter | No | 27.63 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market resolves "Yes" if the RAINFALL trace on the FIA Race Weather Report for the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix registers 'Wet' at any point during the Race session for the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix taking place at the Sepang International Circuit in Malaysia on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve "No" if the RAINFALL trace on the FIA Race Weather Report for the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix does not register 'Wet' at any point. This market covers the Race session only. Rain during Free Practice, Qualifying, Sprint or any other session does not affect this market's resolution. If the Race is suspended or restarted, the FIA Race Weather Report covering the complete, final classified running of the Race is the resolution source. If the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix is canceled or postponed to a date after October 12, 2026, this market resolves "No". Declarations by Race Control that "the track is wet", broadcast commentary, news reporting, or any other secondary sources do not qualify for resolution, only the FIA's official Race Weather Report for the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix will qualify. If the FIA Race Weather Report has not been published by October 12, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve off the FIA Weather Report which will be available on the Event&Timing Information page: https://www.fia.com/events/fia-formula-one-world-championship/season-2026/formula-one. If this link is unavailable, the report will be located via FIA's official F1 season hub at fia.com.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-it-rain-during-the-bahrain-grand-prix
| Jncrypto | No | 20 |
| aspitirus | No | 10 |
| Bambusbunker | No | 6.55 |
| plyworke002 | No | 5 |
| gogogo-v3 | No | 5 |
| JsonStatham | No | 0.51 |
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