Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.2%. Yes opened at 41% on 24 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 24 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 41% on 24 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.8% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 20% on 26 Mar 2026. $17.95K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 3:48 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 24 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Mar 2026 | 41.0% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| starbuck02 | Yes | 1.09K |
| rgess | Yes | 349 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 163.67 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 163 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-iran-conduct-military-action-against-by-april-30
| Quiet Tide 5354 | Yes | 159.91 |
| Sinsin021 | Yes | 125 |
| l492 | Yes | 58.5 |
| daroghi | Yes | 54.62 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Somebody | Yes | 52.09 |
| Colala | Yes | 29.99 |
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