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Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 141.75 | $0.635 | $122.61 | +$32.61 |
 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | buy | 55.56 | $0.720 | $40 | 8d ago |
 |
| Yes |
| 104.01 |
| $0.211 |
| $97.51 |
| +$75.58 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 106.76 | $0.740 | $81.67 | +$2.67 |
 Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.? | Yes | 63.57 | $0.629 | $60.87 | +$20.87 |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | Yes | 55.56 | $0.720 | $53.69 | +$13.69 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 164.86 | $0.740 | $35.45 | -$86.55 |
| buy |
| 106.76 |
| $0.740 |
| $79 |
| 9d ago |
 Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Yes | sell | 74.62 | $0.380 | $28.36 | 15d ago |
 WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on August 24?Yes | buy | 39.39 | $0.660 | $26 | 20d ago |
 Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 44.41 | $0.369 | $16.4 | 27d ago |
 Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 36.7 | $0.373 | $13.69 | 27d ago |
 Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 27.04 | $0.280 | $7.57 | 27d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 164.86 | $0.740 | $122 | 29d ago |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Yes | buy | 74.63 | $0.670 | $50 | 29d ago |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes | sell | 104 | $0.858 | $89.23 | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 27.04 | $0.750 | $20.28 | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 44.41 | $0.675 | $30 | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 36.71 | $0.790 | $29 | Aug 13, 2026 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 48.69 | $0.350 | $17.04 | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Yes | buy | 51.28 | $0.780 | $40 | Aug 7, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 48.68 | $0.760 | $37 | Aug 7, 2026 |
 Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?No | buy | 11.84 | $0.620 | $7.34 | Aug 3, 2026 |
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Yes | buy | 65.79 | $0.760 | $50 | Aug 3, 2026 |
 Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?Yes | sell | 27.02 | $0.660 | $17.83 | Aug 3, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes | sell | 49.33 | $0.600 | $29.6 | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?Yes | buy | 27.01 | $0.740 | $20 | Aug 2, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Yes | buy | 32.86 | $0.700 | $23 | Aug 2, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | buy | 51.72 | $0.580 | $30 | Aug 2, 2026 |
 Will Iran target a Arab country on August 2, 2026?Yes | sell | 63.82 | $0.149 | $9.5 | Aug 2, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?No | sell | 76.92 | $0.300 | $23.08 | Aug 2, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?No | buy | 76.92 | $0.650 | $50 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 2, 2026?Yes | buy | 63.82 | $0.783 | $50 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes | buy | 49.33 | $0.750 | $37 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 16.12 | $0.410 | $6.61 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Yes | sell | 46.66 | $0.510 | $23.8 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Yes | sell | 32.25 | $0.410 | $13.22 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 16.13 | $0.620 | $10 | Jul 28, 2026 |
 Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Yes | buy | 32.47 | $0.770 | $25 | Jul 28, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Fake News" during Michigan remarks?Yes | buy | 36.25 | $0.800 | $29 | Jul 26, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Ukraine" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Yes | buy | 63.29 | $0.790 | $50 | Jul 26, 2026 |
| Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?Yes | buy | 27.03 | $0.740 | $20 | Jul 26, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Yes | buy | 46.67 | $0.750 | $35 | Jul 26, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Yes | buy | 32.26 | $0.620 | $20 | Jul 26, 2026 |
 Will USD be at least 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?Yes | sell | 31.54 | $0.129 | $4.07 | Jul 26, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?No | sell | 31.05 | $0.386 | $12 | Jul 26, 2026 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?Yes | sell | 24.38 | $0.090 | $2.19 | Jul 26, 2026 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?Yes | sell | 39.06 | $0.007 | $0.29 | Jul 26, 2026 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?Yes | buy | 39.06 | $0.640 | $25 | Jul 25, 2026 |
| Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference?Yes | buy | 32.88 | $0.730 | $24 | Jul 25, 2026 |
 US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Yes | buy | 47.89 | $0.710 | $34 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?Yes | buy | 41.67 | $0.840 | $35 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Yes | sell | 69.8 | $0.534 | $37.28 | Jul 23, 2026 |
 Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?Yes | sell | 49.26 | $0.750 | $36.95 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?Yes | buy | 24.38 | $0.779 | $19 | Jul 23, 2026 |
 Will the highest temperature in Denver be 94°F or higher on July 22?Yes | buy | 16.34 | $0.796 | $13 | Jul 22, 2026 |