Analytics
Resolved Yes on 2 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 83%. Yes opened at 64% on 1 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 1 Mar 2026 to 2 Mar 2026, the highest close was 83% on 2 Mar 2026 and the lowest 64% on 1 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 83% on 2 Mar 2026. $212.45K traded over the market's life.
45 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 4, 12:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 1 Mar 2026 – 2 Mar 2026, chart shows 60%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2026 | 64.0% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | 83.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Splendid-Bathtub | No | 5K |
| MasonsConqueredRome | No | 4.17K |
| plmrkmm | No | 2.84K |
| duderr | No | 1.8K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike against an oil or gas facility, inclusive of all oil rigs, refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on the soil or within the maritime territory of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE), between February 28 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes and aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory based on a consensus of credible reporting, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not qualify. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-iran-strike-gulf-oil-facilities-by-march-31
| Djjam | No | 1.46K |
| RememberAmalek | No | 1.19K |
| oak | No | 807.21 |
| Common-Motivation | No | 544.34 |
| Impolite-Tracking | No | 444.95 |
| kamarat | No | 350 |
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