Analytics
Yes is at 20%, up 6 points from 14% when the market opened on 13 Oct 2026.
Across the 10 daily closes on record from 13 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 23.5% on 15 Oct 2026 and the lowest 11.5% on 19 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 12.5%. Its largest one-day move was 9 points up, to 23.5% on 15 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?”.
$851.57 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $24.93K since listing. The order book holds $22.27K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 220 trades, $1.79K bought Yes and $3.49K bought No; the largest was a $1.28K buy of No at 79.0¢.
The largest Yes position is gods-eye with 1.5K shares; the largest No position is Inchoroi with 923. Ten wallets hold 86.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 8 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 5:46 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 13 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 5%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | 14.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 19.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| gods-eye | Yes | 1.52K |
| Violet Vector B233 | Yes | 1.03K |
| Inchoroi | No | 922.84 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or an Iranian proxy group physically damages undersea internet cables between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Iranian proxy groups are: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. Only physical damage to undersea internet cable infrastructure will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects. A qualifying incident must be deliberately caused by, or result from an attack or other deliberate action by, Iran or an Iranian proxy. Damage caused as a result of an Iranian or Iranian proxy attack on a vessel will qualify. Attempted attacks that do not result in damage will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The occurrence, cause, and attribution of qualifying cable damage will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, cause, or attribution of relevant cable damage, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, cause, and attribution of the damage based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the damage. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, cause, or attribution of the damage, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution source for this market will be credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-iran-damage-undersea-internet-cables-byptptpt
| Anjun |
| No |
| 666 |
| 0x49F206 | No | 565.01 |
| Haradwaith | No | 238.49 |
| TronOG | No | 228.27 |
| GonTanaka | No | 144 |
| adenakoz1 | No | 100 |
| KakiBatusik | Yes | 83.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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