Analytics
Yes is at 2.1%, down 47 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 30 Dec 2025.
Across the 284 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (19 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 59% on 9 Apr 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 18 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.5%; a month before, 6.9%. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 17.5% on 6 May 2026.
Ian Machado Garry ranks 19th of the 26 outcomes in “Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?”. Sergei Pavlovich leads at 10.5%; Alexander Volkov is at 10.3%.
$3.05K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $960.35, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 57 trades, $134 bought Yes and $1.91K bought No.
The largest Yes position is bubababa0 with 1K shares; the largest No position is saskesas with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 82.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 284 points, 30 Dec 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | 49.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 2.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| saskesas | No | 1.19K |
| bubababa0 | Yes | 1K |
| 0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxd | No | 478.65 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed fighter becomes champion of any UFC division between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-become-a-ufc-champion-in-2026
13 more outcomes, none above 4.0%.
| ooops | No | 278.5 |
| BuD | No | 181.6 |
| Well-Off-Minnow | Yes | 167.47 |
| Chesterr | Yes | 143.79 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 140.56 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 129.06 |
| Moneybegger54 | Yes | 103.41 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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