Analytics
Yes is at 13.7%, up 1.7 points from 12% when the market opened on 25 Feb 2026.
Across the 223 daily closes on record from 25 Feb 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (25 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 75.5% on 5 Mar 2026 and the lowest 8.2% on 4 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8.5%; a month before, 18.8%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 39% on 7 Mar 2026.
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan ranks fourth of the 8 outcomes in “Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?”. Iván Mordisco leads at 25.5%; Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar is at 15.5%.
$5.43K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $387.55, with a 11.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 111 trades, $788.7 bought Yes and $357.41 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 249 shares; the largest No position is clazzy1 with 238.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 223 points, 25 Feb 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2026 | 12.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 13.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 249.13 |
| clazzy1 | No | 237.91 |
| Gohst | No | 199.56 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. |
| Yes |
| 84 |
| Nadmi | Yes | 55.97 |
| a3368166 | Yes | 40 |
| Gracious-Stamp | Yes | 8.33 |
| geonb | No | 6.53 |
| 10gukjgjhgh | Yes | 5.16 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 5.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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