Analytics
Yes is at 48%, down 2 points from 50% when the market opened on 30 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026, the highest close was 50% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 48% on 30 Oct 2026.
It is one of 8 markets under “Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?”.
$234.98 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $28.63, with a 84.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 50 shares; the largest No position is clazzy1 with 95.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 30 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 40%–55%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 48.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| clazzy1 | No | 95 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 49.6 |
| Golden Kestrel D399 | Yes | 25 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026
| Indigo Summit AE8C |
| Yes |
| 20 |
| hfv | Yes | 10 |
| Dirty-Burn | No | 9.6 |
| JsonStatham | Yes | 0.38 |
| rubby1337 | No | 0.38 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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