Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 30 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 71% on 3 Feb 2026 and the low 0.4% on 3 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 47.5% on 4 Feb 2026. $486.24K traded over the market's life.
123 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 5:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 145 points, 30 Jan 2026 – 3 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | 48.5% |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| WCBT | Yes | 22.77K |
| MagicEightBall | Yes | 8.35K |
| 881112 | Yes | 6.83K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31
| Cheery-Alert | Yes | 5.92K |
| Canaldi | No | 3.63K |
| Jujumolomojo | Yes | 3.1K |
| Ovrrep | No | 1.5K |
| Violet Vector B233 | Yes | 671 |
| Crushing-Everyone | Yes | 486.7 |
| rickyvaughn | Yes | 347.14 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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