Analytics
Yes is at 24%, down 4 points from 28% when the market opened on 25 Sep 2026.
The high was 72.5% on 2 Oct 2026 and the low 21.5% on 8 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 43%. Its largest one-day move was 30 points up, to 66.5% on 1 Oct 2026.
↓ $8 ranks third of the 4 outcomes in “What will GPT Sol's output token price hit in 2026?”. ↑ $15 leads at 45.5%; ↓ $5 is at 27%.
$2.87K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $259.28, with a 16.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 43 trades, $268.16 bought Yes and $460.29 bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 344 shares; the largest No position is molodoyy with 672.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 76 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 17, 8:15 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 25 Sep 2026 – 17 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | 28.0% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 24.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| molodoyy | No | 672.24 |
| AJSV | Yes | 344.09 |
| Trading4Fridge | Yes | 85 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard output token price of OpenAI's latest GPT Sol model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". OpenAI's latest GPT Sol model means the model with the highest GPT version number among models by OpenAI explicitly named Sol, such as GPT-5.6 Sol or GPT-6 Sol, that have a standard output token price listed on OpenAI's official API pricing page. If more than one such model shares the highest version number, the most recently released of them applies. Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify. The relevant price is the “Standard” output token price on OpenAI’s official API pricing page, using the “Short context” rate where context-based pricing differs. Prices for batch, flex, fast mode, priority, long-context, cached, or regional and data-residency variants will not be considered. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution; only the standard listed API price applies. A price qualifies only while the model is OpenAI's latest GPT Sol model as defined above, after market creation. The resolution source for this market will be OpenAI's official API pricing page (https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing). Official announcements and archived copies of this page may be used to confirm prices and when they were displayed; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-gpt-sol-output-token-price-hit-in-2026
| 2B9S |
| Yes |
| 80 |
| beyond0 | Yes | 80 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 41.3 |
| cybermaxs | Yes | 40 |
| JsonStatham | Yes | 40 |
| lindasampson | No | 31.91 |
| Tallguy2527 | No | 21.3 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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