Analytics
Yes is at 85%, down 3 points from 88% when the market opened on 23 Oct 2026.
Across the 6 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 88% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 79.5% on 27 Oct 2026.
It is one of 5 markets under “GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Debut?”.
$956.27 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.75K since listing. The order book holds $1.61K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 101 trades, $1.21K bought Yes and $361.74 bought No.
The largest Yes position is haruka77 with 504 shares; the largest No position is xtxpleasecallme with 360. Ten wallets hold 92.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:45 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 23 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 75%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 88.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 85.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| haruka77 | Yes | 504.29 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 360.34 |
| BAO95889 | Yes | 319 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Astra model (6.1+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
| ZhouCD |
| No |
| 218.02 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 189.11 |
| Amber Ledger 7857 | No | 146.3 |
| Fihdrzgdd | Yes | 100 |
| PPMT | Yes | 50.01 |
| ghorrock | No | 28.45 |
| AMAM13 | No | 21 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gpt-astra-6pt1-text-arena-debut-20261020
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