- What is the “Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?” market asking?
- It asks whether the following will happen: Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
- What do the Yes and No prices mean?
- At the last observation Yes traded at 50.0¢ and No at 50.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 50.0% for Yes and 50.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
- When does this market close?
- Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 31, 2023 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
- How does this market resolve?
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4 has 500 billion or more parameters when released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market covers how many parameters GPT-4 has at the time of its initial release, and will resolve based on that number regardless of whether that figure is later increased or decreased. If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. GPT-4 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-4, or is a successor to GPT-3 in the way that GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2; it cannot be branded as GPT3.5 or… Resolution source: https://openai.com/.
- What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?
- Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
