Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 30 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 130 daily closes on record from 30 Jan 2026 to 1 Jul 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 53% on 31 Jan 2026 and the lowest 2% on 1 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 15.5% on 1 Feb 2026. $65.62K traded over the market's life.
39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 1, 11:17 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 130 points, 30 Jan 2026 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | 47.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 2.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Identical-Circumference | Yes | 1.78K |
| Loathsome-Itinerary | Yes | 658.34 |
| wakeupsawly | Yes | 188.65 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini 3 model with a score of at least the specified score by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/google-gemini-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-june-30
| Yes |
| 100 |
| Flawed-Instruction | Yes | 68.29 |
| wcaleniemawerty | Yes | 66.01 |
| Alive-Speed | Yes | 43.48 |
| gamblingcows | Yes | 36.79 |
| DerApfelIstDerApfel | Yes | 32.25 |
| Tough-Chop | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
