Analytics
Yes is at 40.5%, up 12 points from 29% when the market opened on 4 Oct 2026.
Across the 17 daily closes on record from 4 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 47% on 17 Oct 2026 and the lowest 22.5% on 6 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 43%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 22.5% on 6 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Gemini Spark on the free plan by...?”.
$661.61 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $170.03, with a 65.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 38 trades, $83.01 bought Yes and $163.41 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 199 shares; the largest No position is Basilomo with 110.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 4 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2026 | 29.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 40.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 198.98 |
| Basilomo | No | 110.12 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 40.96 |
On September 8, 2026, Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that runs on a cloud computer dedicated to each user, and made it free to use, including the cloud computer. Google's similar product, Gemini Spark, announced on May 19, 2026, is available only on paid Google AI plans. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google makes Gemini Spark available for use without requiring a paid subscription or other paid entitlement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Free access subject to usage limits will qualify. Access through a free trial or promotional offer of a paid plan will not qualify. Free access must be launched and publicly accessible through an official distribution channel, including via open beta or a gradual rollout to users without a paid subscription or other paid entitlement. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. Availability limited to certain countries will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gemini-spark-on-the-free-plan-by
| Flingflonger |
| No |
| 40 |
| youtube-trader | No | 13.59 |
| sergak0 | Yes | 4 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 1 |
| Solar Summit 0A64 | Yes | 0.61 |
| PPMT | Yes | 0.07 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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