Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 41% on 26 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 37 daily closes on record from 26 Aug 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 41% on 26 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 18.5% on 28 Aug 2025. $85.24K traded over the market's life.
44 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 26 Aug 2025 – 1 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2025 | 41.0% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tupac | Yes | 7.6K |
| XMH | No | 1.18K |
| TonerCartridge | Yes | 948.79 |
| Shimeji | Yes | 499.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) Google's Gemini 3.0 model is made available to the general public. For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 3.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 3.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.0 (e.g. Gemini 3.0 pro would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 2.0, similar to the progression from Gemini 1.0 to Gemini 2.0. Products labeled as Gemini 2.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gemini-3pt0-released-by
| Notable-Median | Yes | 350 |
| Gusarich | Yes | 345.26 |
| Well-Off-Mail | Yes | 333.33 |
| za4em | Yes | 328.12 |
| Uniform-Stadium | Yes | 204.55 |
| oregano | Yes | 177.29 |
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