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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?No | sell | 1.8K | $0.880 | $1.58K | Mar 10, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 47.4 |
| $0.394 |
| $18.69 |
| Mar 1, 2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?No | buy | 1K | $0.390 | $390 | Mar 1, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes | sell | 88.01 | $0.952 | $83.82 | Feb 22, 2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?No | buy | 2.31K | $0.600 | $1.39K | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes | buy | 88.02 | $0.682 | $60 | Feb 14, 2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?No | buy | 22.55 | $0.424 | $9.56 | Feb 14, 2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?No | buy | 9.62 | $0.600 | $5.77 | Feb 14, 2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?No | buy | 100 | $0.600 | $60 | Feb 14, 2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?No | buy | 41.54 | $0.530 | $22.02 | Feb 13, 2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?No | buy | 19 | $0.570 | $10.83 | Feb 12, 2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?No | buy | 362.82 | $0.276 | $100 | Feb 11, 2026 |
 Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.130 | $130 | Oct 19, 2025 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?Yes | buy | 1.06K | $0.095 | $100 | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.100 | $50 | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?Yes | buy | 172.41 | $0.580 | $100 | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by September 30?Yes | buy | 490 | $0.100 | $49 | Sep 17, 2025 |
 TikTok sale announced in 2025?No | buy | 200 | $0.580 | $116 | Sep 15, 2025 |
 Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?No | buy | 39.58 | $0.930 | $36.81 | Aug 19, 2025 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?Yes | buy | 76.92 | $0.130 | $10 | Aug 15, 2025 |
 Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?No | buy | 64.52 | $0.310 | $20 | Aug 15, 2025 |
 Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?Yes | buy | 2.57K | $0.971 | $2.5K | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?Yes | sell | 2.62K | $0.954 | $2.5K | Aug 6, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?Yes | buy | 2.62K | $0.979 | $2.56K | Aug 6, 2025 |
 AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?Yes | sell | 556.57 | $0.094 | $52.29 | Aug 6, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?Yes | buy | 1.25K | $0.973 | $1.21K | Aug 5, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?Yes | buy | 1.26K | $0.794 | $1K | Aug 4, 2025 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?Yes | buy | 262.31 | $0.381 | $100 | Jul 21, 2025 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?Yes | buy | 294.26 | $0.340 | $100 | Jul 21, 2025 |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?No | buy | 1.09K | $0.920 | $1K | Jul 9, 2025 |
| TikTok sale announced in 2025?No | buy | 166.67 | $0.600 | $100 | Jul 9, 2025 |
| DeepSeek V4 released before July?No | buy | 568.63 | $0.544 | $309.34 | May 16, 2025 |
| DeepSeek V4 released before July?No | buy | 233 | $0.488 | $113.64 | May 15, 2025 |
| DeepSeek V4 released before July?No | buy | 20 | $0.490 | $9.8 | May 14, 2025 |
| DeepSeek V4 released before July?No | buy | 20 | $0.490 | $9.8 | May 14, 2025 |
| DeepSeek V4 released before July?No | buy | 74.51 | $0.490 | $36.51 | May 14, 2025 |
| DeepSeek V4 released before July?No | buy | 1.36K | $0.505 | $686.18 | May 11, 2025 |
 DeepSeek R2 released before May?No | buy | 545.77 | $0.830 | $453.24 | Apr 19, 2025 |
 DeepSeek V4 released before May?No | sell | 484.63 | $0.935 | $453.24 | Apr 19, 2025 |
| DeepSeek V4 released before May?No | buy | 335.89 | $0.840 | $282.07 | Apr 11, 2025 |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?No | sell | 301.56 | $0.850 | $256.33 | Apr 11, 2025 |
| DeepSeek V4 released before May?No | buy | 89.02 | $0.830 | $73.89 | Apr 8, 2025 |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?No | buy | 40 | $0.840 | $33.6 | Apr 7, 2025 |
| DeepSeek V4 released before May?No | buy | 5.47 | $0.700 | $3.83 | Mar 11, 2025 |
| DeepSeek V4 released before May?No | buy | 43.28 | $0.693 | $30 | Mar 11, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 11.36 | $0.088 | $1 | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 11.49 | $0.087 | $1 | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 10.64 | $0.094 | $1 | Feb 27, 2025 |
 Alibaba AI model better than DeepSeek before March?Yes | buy | 18.7 | $0.053 | $1 | Feb 25, 2025 |
 Will o3-mini be better than DeepSeek before March?No | sell | 66.66 | $0.220 | $14.67 | Feb 6, 2025 |