Analytics
Resolved Yes on 28 Oct 2026.
$61.4K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 29, 1:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 1 point, 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 15.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bruised-Pillbox | No | 18.8K |
| siick | No | 4.5K |
| ThrY34 | No | 1K |
| JsonStatham | No | 697 |
| Malganis | No | 531.41 |
| 1nvoker1 | No | 501.9 |
| AiBird | No | 500 |
| Our-Sherry | No | 200 |
| sanjimo | No | 200 |
| bushseer | No | 80 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/flavio-bolsonaro-returns-to-brazil-by
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
