Analytics
Yes is at 45%, down 5 points from 50% when the market opened on 31 Dec 2025.
Across the 281 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2025 to 30 Oct 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 80.5% on 27 Jul 2026 and the lowest 9% on 16 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 42.5%; a month before, 13.5%. Its largest one-day move was 56 points down, to 25% on 28 Jul 2026.
$10.89K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $111.26, with a 56.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 451 trades, $730.78 bought Yes and $2.61K bought No.
The largest Yes position is LornaPredicts with 98 shares; the largest No position is iced-matcha-latte with 157. Ten wallets hold 74.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 281 points, 31 Dec 2025 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 45.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| iced-matcha-latte | No | 157.25 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 98.34 |
| l492 | Yes | 65.41 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-el-salvador-hold-1b-of-btc-by-by
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 64.29 |
| Seldon26 | No | 59.16 |
| kstc19 | No | 53.31 |
| Defenseless-Eyebrow | Yes | 40.67 |
| Sathwik155 | No | 37.74 |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 37.52 |
| kstc17a | No | 29.38 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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