Analytics
Yes is at 35.5%, down 9.5 points from 45% when the market opened on 25 Jul 2026.
Across the 93 daily closes on record from 25 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 67% on 6 Sep 2026 and the lowest 21.5% on 22 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 35.5%; a month before, 38%. Its largest one-day move was 30 points up, to 67% on 6 Sep 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?”.
$48.36 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $60.87K since listing. The order book holds $8.53K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 496 trades, $9.08K bought Yes and $13.36K bought No; the largest was a $2.35K buy of No at 43.8¢.
The largest Yes position is wqujvj with 4.1K shares; the largest No position is Failing-Obsidian with 5.9K. Ten wallets hold 76.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2029.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 93 points, 25 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2026 | 45.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 35.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Failing-Obsidian | No | 5.93K |
| wqujvj | Yes | 4.07K |
| fafafaffafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafa | Yes | 3.47K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-cmi-declare-a-millennium-prize-problem-solved-by-20260723160122979
| Hakei. | Yes | 2.96K |
| Cuddly-Pillar | No | 2.91K |
| yen4u | No | 1.71K |
| DerDon | No | 1.61K |
| il1 | No | 1K |
| DualDelta | Yes | 826.32 |
| 0x49F206 | No | 786.44 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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