Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 22?

Resolved

Yes, settled Feb 19, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$88.9K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Feb 19, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy World leaders

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 19 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 40.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 12 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 12 Feb 2026 to 18 Feb 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 50.5% on 13 Feb 2026 and the lowest 29% on 17 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 34.5% on 15 Feb 2026. $88.92K traded over the market's life.

39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 20, 8:25 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 12 Feb 2026 – 18 Feb 2026, chart shows 20%–60%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Feb 2026	50.0%
18 Feb 2026	40.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
HanSooyoung	No	2K
negr	No	1K
Saldivva	No	611.55

10 of 39 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT is no longer the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).