What is the “Will Catherine Connolly win by 10–15%?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will Catherine Connolly win by 10–15%? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Irish Presidential Election Margin of Victory”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 26 Oct 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election, scheduled to take place on October 24, 2025. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

24 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Oct 27, 4:30 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/irish-presidential-election-margin-of-victory) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Will Catherine Connolly win by 10–15%?

Market referencewill-catherine-connolly-win-by-1015Updated Oct 27, 2025 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Oct 26, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$35.6K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 26, 2025 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Oct 27, 2025 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Oct 27, 2025 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

98%

Yes / No shares

7.83K / 26.45K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

402

Wallets

103

Loaded notional

$9.7K

Yes buy at 0.1%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Oct 26, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

-15 pts

Range

0.1% - 22.0%

Oct 7, 12:00 AM UTC to Oct 26, 12:00 AM UTC

Remaining positions after settlementWinners redeemed their shares, so these rows lean to the losing side. Not live orderbook depth or current OI.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	26.45K	0.0%	$0
alk19	Yes	3K	0.1%

Irish Presidential Election Margin of Victory

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will Catherine Connolly win by 10–15%?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will Catherine Connolly win by 10–15%? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Irish Presidential Election Margin of Victory”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 26 Oct 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election, scheduled to take place on October 24, 2025. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

Indigo Signal 2966

26.45K

0.0%

alk19

Yes

0.1%

Trader	Current holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$26.45K
alk19	$0
Adrianeex	$0
jos74	$0
HamzaUSF	$0
wokerjoesleeper	$0
Ziigmund	$0
painmancer	$0
CryptoNative25	$0
Bright Horizon 81D6	$0
Bright Signal 14DE	$0
Cookedtan	$0