Analytics
Yes is at 1.7%, down 5.8 points from 7.5% when the market opened on 27 Nov 2025.
Across the 323 daily closes on record from 27 Nov 2025 to 25 Oct 2026 (10 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 10.5% on 1 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.9% on 9 Mar 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.8%; a month before, 1.8%.
$662.94 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $198.93K since listing. The order book holds $6.87K, with a 1.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $535.34 bought Yes and $13.37K bought No; the largest was a $11.24K sell of No at 89.6¢.
The largest Yes position is tiger555 with 4.5K shares; the largest No position is shadowrunner with 8.3K. Ten wallets hold 78.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 68 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 8:58 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 323 points, 27 Nov 2025 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Nov 2025 | 7.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 1.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| shadowrunner | No | 8.31K |
| tiger555 | Yes | 4.55K |
| pd2 | No | 2.93K |
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-replace-sha-256-before-2027
| variousthings |
| Yes |
| 2.14K |
| bantalimon | Yes | 1.75K |
| ftqc | Yes | 1.51K |
| momomumu | Yes | 1.34K |
| polwally4 | No | 1.08K |
| Solar Raven A90C | No | 1.07K |
| dizzyg | No | 544.23 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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