Analytics
Yes is at 22%, down 28 points from 50% when the market opened on 21 Aug 2026.
Across the 75 daily closes on record from 21 Aug 2026 to 5 Nov 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 67% on 25 Aug 2026 and the lowest 18% on 5 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 23.5%; a month before, 30%. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 29.5% on 26 Aug 2026.
It is one of 5 markets under “When will Bitcoin hit $150k?”.
$48.54 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $14.19K since listing. The order book holds $20.58K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 188 trades, $1.01K bought Yes and $6.4K bought No; the largest was a $4.85K buy of No at 73.5¢.
The largest Yes position is smolbrain0x with 7.5K shares; the largest No position is herbertdudu with 6.8K. Ten wallets hold 97.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 5, 10:51 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 75 points, 21 Aug 2026 – 5 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 22.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| smolbrain0x | Yes | 7.48K |
| herbertdudu | No | 6.78K |
| herbertdu | No | 1.63K |
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title by 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k
| Surprised-Instrument |
| Yes |
| 726.02 |
| terrancetao | No | 607.82 |
| Key03 | Yes | 514.24 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 485.2 |
| Liquidifier | No | 302.64 |
| Royal Vector 5EBC | No | 149.2 |
| St3f | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
