Analytics
Yes is at 71.9%, up 42 points from 29.5% when the market opened on 6 Aug 2026.
Across the 82 daily closes on record from 6 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 88.4% on 16 Oct 2026 and the lowest 3.5% on 9 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 88.3%; a month before, 77.8%. Its largest one-day move was 52 points up, to 86.3% on 15 Sep 2026.
Beatriz Mojica Morga is the favourite of the 28 outcomes in “Guerrero Governor Election Winner”, ahead of Marcial Rodríguez Saldaña at 19.4%.
$148.8 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $18.59K since listing. The order book holds $1.08K, with a 31.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 405 trades, $2.38K bought Yes and $1.72K bought No.
The largest Yes position is SnapElectionAvoider with 1.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2.9K. Ten wallets hold 93.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 7 Jun 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:47 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 82 points, 6 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | 29.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 71.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.93K |
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 1.93K |
| FrozenParasite | Yes | 1.08K |
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Guerrero on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/guerrero-governor-election-winner-20260803170329
16 more outcomes, none above 0.5%.
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 492.25 |
| EsperanzasDESTROYER | Yes | 340.56 |
| Tenebrus7 | Yes | 251.2 |
| GoodNightIHope | No | 198.03 |
| Elias.Thornwell | Yes | 114.77 |
| Dr.PNL | No | 107.72 |
| ACara | No | 96.27 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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