Analytics
Yes is at 3.6%, down 27 points from 30.5% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 24 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 33.5% on 3 Oct 2026 and the lowest 3.7% on 30 Oct 2026. The current quote, 3.6%, is below every close in that window; the latest close was 3.7% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 7.5%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 14% on 6 Oct 2026.
It is one of 5 markets under “Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?”.
$32 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.33K since listing. The order book holds $10.51K, with a 3.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 39 trades, $200.92 bought Yes and $725.6 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is RogerFed with 674. Ten wallets hold 92.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 6:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 30.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 3.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 1.09K |
| RogerFed | No | 673.58 |
| grinder1011 | No | 504 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-october-31
| Quiet Sphinx 7C0B |
| No |
| 402.33 |
| timeistmoney | Yes | 257.33 |
| Quantum777 | No | 211.96 |
| balthazar | Yes | 139.89 |
| Cioppolacchio | Yes | 131.15 |
| 73f44919CE0143F0e9a05F531f7C8B15c8a483a0. | Yes | 123.51 |
| cigarettes | Yes | 120 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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