Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95%. Yes opened at 31.5% on 4 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2026 to 21 Sep 2026, the highest close was 47.5% on 5 Sep 2026 and the lowest 3.7% on 19 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 47.5% on 5 Sep 2026. $11.02K traded over the market's life.
39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 4 Sep 2026 – 21 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 31.5% |
| 21 Sep 2026 | 5.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.37K |
| ricky8763 | Yes | 736.23 |
| balthazar | Yes | 673.08 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/best-ai-model-on-september-21
| Yes |
| 491.16 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 232.52 |
| Rapid Tide 9696 | Yes | 219.99 |
| shafeeque | Yes | 100 |
| Fihdrzgdd | Yes | 100 |
| nana130299 | Yes | 94.31 |
| AMAM13 | Yes | 92.48 |
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