Analytics
Resolved Yes on 28 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.5%. Yes opened at 46% on 24 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 24 Jul 2026 to 28 Jul 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 98.5% on 28 Jul 2026 and the lowest 46% on 24 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 38 points up, to 84.5% on 25 Jul 2026. $2.9K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 29, 12:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 24 Jul 2026 – 28 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 46.0% |
| 28 Jul 2026 | 98.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| smlptm | No | 110 |
| TENETENET | No | 100 |
| TeenagePanda | No | 66.66 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
| PPMT | No | 30 |
| triklozoid | No | 15 |
| Mojito9 | No | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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