Analytics
Resolved Yes on 10 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 92% on 3 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 3 Jan 2026 to 10 Feb 2026, the highest close was 100% on 10 Feb 2026 and the lowest 91.8% on 5 Feb 2026. $33.75K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 23, 9:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 3 Jan 2026 – 10 Feb 2026, chart shows 85%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2026 | 92.0% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| NNLL | No | 2.92K |
| TENETENET | No | 500 |
| Sad-Nation | No | 333.33 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 232 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 228 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 218 |
| hunggin | No | 152.49 |
| 13klklas | No | 145.89 |
| Bingo-Bango | No | 115 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 109 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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