Analytics
Resolved Yes on 30 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 86.5%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 18 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 18 Apr 2026 to 30 Apr 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 86.5% on 30 Apr 2026 and the lowest 48.5% on 18 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 86.5% on 30 Apr 2026. $50.91K traded over the market's life.
63 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 8:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 18 Apr 2026 – 30 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | 48.5% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | 86.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Coral Lynx 1C25 | No | 823.91 |
| S888 | No | 584.03 |
| Newshound | No | 400 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic grants the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos (including Mythos Preview) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Granting access to Claude Mythos refers to Anthropic allowing any department, agency, or subset of the United States federal government to use Claude Mythos for any purpose. An official announcement from either Anthropic or the United States federal government, that Anthropic has agreed to grant the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos, will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether access begins after the resolution date. Suggestions, negotiations, or other statements that do not constitute granting access will not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Anthropic has agreed to grant access to Claude Mythos to the United States federal government will also suffice. “Claude Mythos” refers to a model named “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos Preview, Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos X) or a model confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model referenced in the March 26, 2026 leak. Models such as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not qualify unless explicitly confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. General public availability of a Claude Mythos model without a qualifying announcement or confirmation of access being granted will not alone suffice. The primary resolution sources will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-anthropic-provide-mythos-to-the-us-government-by-june-30
| No |
| 210.47 |
| Dental-Sycamore | No | 167.06 |
| qaz1234 | No | 147.18 |
| Those-Clip | No | 116.8 |
| mrtoaster17 | No | 101 |
| crop? | No | 82.85 |
| Overcooked-Hazel | No | 81.28 |
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