Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July?

economyResolved

No, settled Aug 12, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$50.2K

Resolved

Settled

Aug 12, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 12 Aug 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 94%. Yes opened at 33.5% on 15 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 15 Jul 2026 to 12 Aug 2026, the highest close was 33.5% on 15 Jul 2026 and the lowest 2.1% on 24 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 12.5% on 16 Jul 2026. $50.19K traded over the market's life.

57 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 15 Jul 2026 – 12 Aug 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
15 Jul 2026	33.5%
12 Aug 2026	5.9%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	32.06K
Tangible-Ceremony	Yes	2.65K
InsiderrrZ	Yes	2.42K

10 of 57 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.