Analytics
Yes is at 26.5%, up 5.5 points from 21% when the market opened on 23 Apr 2026.
Across the 182 daily closes on record from 23 Apr 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 40.5% on 7 Jun 2026 and the lowest 21% on 23 Apr 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 28.5%; a month before, 32.5%. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 23.5% on 28 Jun 2026.
Independent ranks second of the 3 outcomes in “Nebraska Senate Election Winner”. Pete Ricketts (R) leads at 74%; Democrat is at 0.1%.
$1.98K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $329.95K since listing. The order book holds $344.96K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $20.66K bought Yes and $61.21K bought No; the largest was a $22.18K buy of No at 73.0¢.
The largest Yes position is lastminwin with 64.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 55.1K. Ten wallets hold 61.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 11 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 6:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 182 points, 23 Apr 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Apr 2026 | 21.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 26.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| lastminwin | Yes | 64.09K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 55.11K |
| Loyalty-Crash | Yes | 34.46K |
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nebraska-senate-election-winner
| aenews2 | No | 30.39K |
| Mangy62 | Yes | 19.17K |
| gopfan2 | No | 17.98K |
| BigRabbit | Yes | 15K |
| wan123 | Yes | 10.66K |
| grinder1011 | No | 10.28K |
| Valen9 | No | 10.16K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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