
Yes is at 19.5%, up 9.5 points from 10% when the market opened on 6 May 2026.
Across the 173 daily closes on record from 6 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 10% on 6 May 2026 and the lowest 2.4% on 19 Aug 2026. The current quote, 19.5%, is above every close in that window; the latest close was 4.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.4%; a month before, 2.8%.
Allegiant ranks fourth of the 5 outcomes in “Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?”. Frontier Airlines leads at 40.5%; Alaska Airlines is at 20.1%.
$38.97K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $664.91, with a 32.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 256 trades, $60.47 bought Yes and $14.26K bought No; the largest was a $8.16K buy of No at 93.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Nadmi with 831 shares; the largest No position is DEGENKHAN with 650. Ten wallets hold 72.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:40 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 173 points, 6 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 May 2026 | 10.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Nadmi | Yes | 831.34 |
| DEGENKHAN | No | 650.1 |
| devin.lawson.77 | No | 314.25 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used. "Allegiant" refers to Allegiant Travel Company (Nasdaq: ALGT), the parent company of the Allegiant group, its operating subsidiary Allegiant Air, LLC, or any other entity that is controlled by, or is under common control with, Allegiant Travel Company and that holds, directly or indirectly, all or substantially all of Allegiant's business and assets at the time of the filing or announcement. Unless named above, foreign entities, financing entities, special purpose vehicles, and entities used to separate specific legal liabilities will not qualify, even if they meet that test. A filing for bankruptcy means a petition by an entity this market refers to (each, a "covered entity") under Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or a bankruptcy case for a covered entity filed in a court outside the United States under that country's bankruptcy or insolvency law, including a court-appointed administration. A petition filed against a covered entity by its creditors will qualify only if the court enters an order for relief on that petition by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement must state that a covered entity has decided to file for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy. Statements that the company is considering, exploring, or open to bankruptcy, or that bankruptcy is one of several options, will not qualify. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying announcement or filing occurred. Reports citing unnamed sources that a covered entity plans or is preparing to file will not qualify on their own. Once a qualifying filing or announcement occurs, this market will resolve to "Yes" even if the petition is later withdrawn, dismissed, or converted, or the company later reverses its decision. The following will not qualify on their own: a missed payment or other default on debt; a breach of a loan covenant; foreclosure or other enforcement action by creditors; a credit rating downgrade; a debt exchange or other restructuring agreed outside of court; the appointment of a receiver; and an assignment for the benefit of creditors. If a covered entity stops existing because of a merger or similar transaction, it will no longer be a covered entity. If, after the merger, no covered entity remains, this market will resolve to "No". If the transaction only changes a covered entity's name, state of incorporation, or legal form, or places a new holding company over the same business, the resulting entity will be treated as that covered entity. A filing occurs at the time recorded by the court. An announcement occurs at the time it is first published by a covered entity or its representative.
| MtnMark |
| Yes |
| 260.56 |
| Elias.Thornwell | No | 208.54 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 139.8 |
| JosephIsGreat | Yes | 66.45 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 60 |
| nel0monica0son | No | 59.98 |
| felixiaioann | No | 59.52 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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